Decision Making
How (not?) to make decisions
The idea I follow is that a decision is a choice made with insufficient information. Of course the information may be so scant that in reality it’s sheer guesswork. In this last case the spin of a coin will be as effective if not more so.
Decision or choice or guess?
Guess
So, spin the coin, guess the side before it lands. You KNOW you are guessing. This is what guessing feels like. It’s exciting and fun, in this scenario. It’s that fear of not knowing what’s about to happen, the thrill.
Conversely consider the stock market. Ordinary folk usually lose money because they are guessing despite thinking they are not (yes me too).
How to know the difference? Hindsight is a great tool, albeit far too late. However, looking back at how one was feleing when now it has become apparent we had no idea what we were doing and were therefore just guessing. That’s useful if you can recall such an occasion(s). You need to get to know that feeling and use it, recognise it.
An intellectual way to identify if we are guessing is to ask oneself a few questions:
- Have I done this before? No.
- Have I had training in this? No.
- Do I know what someone else, say George, is thinking? No. Really not.
- Do I know how George will deal with this? No - and do not confuse this with how you would deal with it or feel about it and assume (guess!) George would be the same as you; that’s highly unlikely as they are not you. (Remember this is in business and is not about extremes where pretty much everyone is the same.).
- have I asked George? No.
- I think “x”. Why? “I just think”x”. THAT is unfounded guesswork, wild guessing.
- I feel hesitant. Why? Unsure about how George will react/feel/think/etc? As above, that means “don’t know” which means “have no idea” which means guessing.
- I feel uncertain. Why? Same as hesitant above.
- DO NOT GUESS. This is known as “having no idea what one is doing”. Please do not be that person - in business. Find someone who knows, for a start Mrs Google. Ask the right professionals the right questions and you will get the right answers, without it costing a fortune.
- The right professionals? Those recommended to you by people whose opinions you can respect.
Decision
A decision is a choice made with insufficient information. Now then, “uncertainty” clicks in here. We have loads of info, but still do not feel right about it. First we run down the Guess checklist. If we survive that and indeed if we do not, we need to collect more information and if totally guessing thus far, lots of it.
Choice
Easy. The common phrase these days is “it’s a no brainer”. You have all the necessary information and the choice is obvious.
The difference is how each feels
That’s it. Learn the difference and use it.
Judgement calls
There is ONE thought. Faced with making a ” judgement call”, which means deciding now as regards a future matter. No one knows the future, so yes, this is a form of guess.
Let’s make it as informed as possible.
Collect all the info - not least the judgement of others; for example will the government legislate on a matter this way or that way and when? There’s always lots of opinion out there.
Do I have experience in this area? Yes many years.
Is it wise to do nothing? Consequences?
Doing nothing usually means accepting unknown consequences through not being prepared. Of course if a person cannot see that’s another story. Sweeping up at the year end is to make oneself a victim of the absense of management. That is otherwise known as “seat of the pants” management. I call that negligence, or wilful neglect. Nuisance matters are easily reduced to simple processes that need next to no attention. Being “too busy” is absolutely no excuse; to either me or the law of the land. Business is all about priorities (busy ness). I use the Eisenhower Method
The Eisenhower Method
The plan in this is NEVER to have anything that is both urgent and important; this is called “fire fighting”. The idea is always to deal with important matters BEFORE they become urgent. This way lies peace and tranquility. The trick is proper planning; the fives p’s etc. pppppp ok so that’s 6. What do I do? I deal with important matters immediately, so my diary stays empty. Leaving our taxes until a month after the deadline is downright foolish, not to mention stressful for the many months leading up to it. JFDI. Just Do It.
So, what is information?
Hmm. Good question. These days we suffer from information overload and the modern currency is our attention, which is being actively sought every second. This attention seeking puts any attention seeking child to shame. However, these seekers of our attention are all trying to make a profit out of our attention, so their motives are in their own interests, and absolutely not ours. They give not one jot for us.
Sources of information are endless. Start with identifying your questions, this makes us focus on the problem rather than worrying about solutions.
Constructing google queries is definitely a skill in itself, so use google (etc. I use DuckDuckGo) to fashion your questions. Identify key words and jargon that begin to generate suitable looking answers. Then validate them. The internet is full of fake news, misinformation, disinformation and general rubbish. Not to mention malicious web sites. If you are not very good at this find someone who is, they may be closer than you think.
Ask your advisers. By all means validate what they say. Do ask their experience and training if you do not already know; people are usually very happy to explain these things. These being advisers you selected based on recommendations from trusted parties - not google.
My best advice? Sleep on it. Literally. See how it feels in the cold light of day. The converse of this is “act in haste, repent at leisure”.
Combatting the constant attention seeking
Notifications OFF.
Really. Arrange your apps so that all the ones you might wish to monitor are in the same place; each one set to display how many “new messages” it has waiting. Watch out for apps that ignore this, like Whatsapp, and set it in its own settings to be “silent”. Wait until YOU are ready to check. Take control over your attention and where it goes; focus it for your own benefit and not someone else’s.
Phone set to SILENT
Maybe let it vibrate. Again, check “recent calls” when YOU are good and ready. Of course if you are an emergency responder this is not for you. Clearly. It is for everyone else where every random caller behaves as if they should be responded to as an emergency.
Use “do not disturb” (DND)
Consider using “do not disturb” (DND) and set settings to specify who can break through and/or how. I do this 10pm to 10am; your times will be different, or even 24 hours a day etc. Of course also you can switch DND on and off as desired.
Silence unknown callers
Consider silencing all unknown callers, meaning any number not in your address book. Sure, not good for a taxi driver or hairdresser etc. Likewise this can be switched off when thought necessary - such as an expected unknown call from your bank etc. Later unknown calls will remind us to re-enable the block - it’s not a “block”, it just stops the ringing noise and lists them in missed calls so none need be unseen.
Email - books are written about this one.
Unique emails and passwords (separate page as it’s long, use “back” button to come back here.)
If your email address is going in to someone’s database, give only a unique as above. If it is going ONLY in to a person’s address book, then we can use our usual email address, but do have different ones for work and private. This may mean having two domains. Domains these days can be very cheap at well under £5 a year. If you choose “free” then YOU are the product being sold. In my opinion you are better being business like if you are in business on your own account. Free, just isn’t free. No such thing as a free lunch. So if we are going to pay, we may as well get some benefits.
About having two domains
To avoid runnib two domains we could have one and use a “sub” domain for personal emails, or indeed use one of the free providers like gmail/hotmail etc and use the business domain to filter unique emails with different filters. For example listsme. and listsbiz. at mydomain.com. Whatever works for you to implement these ideas. Maybe your accountants can offer you these benefits as part of their service. They may offer free limited companies so why not associated services? The answer being a free company is a one off give away and all associated services get charged for.